End of September

Our position remain remains Bullish, in spite of continued issues with Iran, the highest interest rates we have seen since 2007 and global discussions surrounding artificial intelligence...

Records, Then a Bond Selloff

On Monday the S&P 500 posted its best day since early August and the Nasdaq its first closing record since June, as oil fell on reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz; the Nasdaq set another record Tuesday. The mood turned Wednesday when a strong business activity survey fueled rate-hike expectations. Through Thursday, the Nasdaq was up 1.6% for the week at 26,939 and the S&P 500 up 0.7% at 7,704, while the Dow slipped 0.6% to 51,350. Stocks rebounded Friday as oil and yields eased. The CNN Fear & Greed Index rose to 38 (Fear), up from last week's lows.

Yields at Highest Since 2007

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.11% Wednesday, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year hit 5.43% Thursday, its highest since 2004, in a selloff that spread across Asia and Europe. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed will likely need to hike again this year. The CME FedWatch Tool puts October hike odds at 66%, up from 58% a week ago, and implied a probability of two rate hikes by December, at 53%.