End of September
Our position remain remains Bullish, in spite of continued issues with Iran, the highest interest rates we have seen since 2007 and global discussions surrounding artificial intelligence...Records,...
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The Fed's First Hike in Three Years
The FOMC raised rates a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a unanimous vote, its first increase since July 2023, and signaled more to come. Chair Warsh said inflation has been "too...
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Bond Volatility Sets the Tone
Stocks retreated in a week dominated by the Treasury market: the S&P 500 fell 1.4% to 7,674, the Nasdaq 2.1% to 26,180, and the Dow 0.9% to 53,277. The 30-year yield touched its highest level in...
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This remains the key risk we are monitoring.
The interim deal that appeared close a week ago did not materialize, and the June memorandum of understanding is set to expire Monday, with little sign either side will extend it. Iran's foreign...
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Records on Broad Participation
Stocks delivered their best week since mid-April, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing Friday at record highs. BAILA remains firmly risk-on. The S&P 500 surged 3.6% for the week to a record...
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Volatility, Then a Higher Finish
Stocks broke a two-week losing streak. The S&P 500 and the Dow each gained about 1% for the week, to 7,490 and 52,485, and the Nasdaq rose 1.6% to 25,374. The path there was rough: the Dow fell...
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Middle East: From Strikes Back to Talks
After the previous weekend's exchange of strikes, the week passed without a repeat escalation, and U.S.-Iran talks on a fuller settlement continued. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz kept...
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Markets Rebound, Dow Hits Record
Stocks recovered from the prior week's tech selloff. For the week ending Thursday (markets were closed Friday for the holiday), the S&P 500 gained about 1.8% to 7,483, the Nasdaq rose 2.1% to 25...
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A More Hawkish Fed Under Warsh
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth straight meeting, on a unanimous 12-0 vote. The surprise was in the projections: nine of eighteen...
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