This remains the key risk we are monitoring.

The interim deal that appeared close a week ago did not materialize, and the June memorandum of understanding is set to expire Monday, with little sign either side will extend it. Iran's foreign minister said Saturday that Tehran has not decided whether to restart negotiations with the U.S., while mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continued to exchange messages and Iranian and Omani officials met again Sunday on managing strait traffic. Two UAE tankers were attacked Friday while transiting the strait, and oil ticked up. Even so, markets remained notably calm, with volatility at multi-month lows.