Iran Framework Reached, but the Picture Stays Fluid

The U.S. and Iran signed a framework agreement this week to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, opening a 60-day window for broader negotiations. Oil fell sharply on the news, touching its lowest levels since early March before settling near $76 (WTI) and $81 (Brent) by Thursday's close, and energy shares pulled back. The situation remains fluid: over the weekend Iran said it would again close the strait, citing continued Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon, while the U.S. disputed Iran's control of the waterway and said traffic would keep flowing. Talks are underway in Switzerland. A durable de-escalation would relieve a key source of the inflation pressure that has kept the Fed cautious, though the path there is not yet settled.